|
|
Determinants of the Residential Real Estate Prices in Selected EU Countries
Rákosníková, Andrea ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Schwarz, Jiří (referee)
This thesis aims to identify the determinants of real housing prices in the 13 newest EU member states. Determinants were identified using individual time series and aggregate panel analyses to ensure the best results. Cointegrating relationships were confirmed through testing and factored into the choice of estimation methods. The time series regression was done using the VECM, and the same method was used to test the theory that the capitals are the price leaders in housing markets. Results revealed that this effect is limited to only some markets, particularly affecting Czechia and Slovakia. Panel analyses, done using the PDOLS and ECM, were used to examine determinants and the speed of convergence of variables to equilibrium. The results of the aggregate panel regression showed that numerous determinants, namely the construction prices, GDP, number of housing permits, rents, and population, affect housing prices significantly. However, area-specific panels and time series models highlighted significant variations in results across countries. For example, GDP is not a significant determinant in V4 countries, while its effect is vital for the Balkans. The most surprising results were observed for Cyprus and Malta, where the relationships between the prices and determinants seem to be distorted by...
|
|
|
Determinants of residential real estate prices in the Baltic States
Rákosníková, Andrea ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Hanzlík, Petr (referee)
The burst of the housing bubble on the US market, that contributed to the start of the Great Recession, was a warning sign to many economists. Consequently, the last decade birthed important studies analysing the real estate market in the search for the driving determinants of the housing prices. This thesis continues these efforts by time series analysis of the determinants of residential real estate prices in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The VECM analysis showed that the importance of classic housing determinants differs from country to country. The price persistence is a crucial determinant of the Baltics' housing prices in the short run, but only Estonia and Lithuania showed the persistence in the long run. Latvian house price index seems to be very affected by the construction cost index, and therefore supply side of the housing market. The model also suggested an unexpected negative relationship between house and rent prices. The analysis was however done on relatively short time series and that could cause some discrepancies in the results as well. The author also used the P/I and P/R ratios and the Hodrick-Prescott filter to analyse the housing prices in the search of possible overvaluation, and concluded that these measures do not seem to indicate the existence of the housing bubble in...
|
guest ::
